Friday, February 29, 2008

Booster shot for Men's Titles


Booster shot for Men's Titles
ShortList and Sport are now the largest magazines
By Heidi Dawley
After several ferociously competitive years and declining circulations, Britain's men's magazines have just gotten a real boost. Circulation has rebounded for the category.

"The men's market was up something like 11 percent," says Dan Pimm, head of print media at Universal McCann's London operation, referring to just-released circulation data. "For the men's market that's amazing."

Now here's the not-so-good news. The gains are being enjoyed not by all titles but by two of the newest publications, and both are free and with hefty distributions, ShortList, an upscale men's weekly, and Sport, also a weekly.

The figures reveal several things, and one is to put the kibosh on the idea that men were drifting off to the internet and away from print titles.

"For those that say men are moving away from magazines and going online, this shows the opposite," says Mike Soutar, ShortList's founder and a former editorial director at IPC, a major UK publishing house.

"If you get the content right, men's magazines have never been more engaging. There has never been a greater number of men's magazines read than today."

But it also speaks volumes about the potential for free magazine in the UK and perhaps elsewhere, including the U.S.

In just the last 18 months, three free titles have launched, two men's and one women's magazine.

Sport, a British reworking of a successful French concept that launched in 2006 as a weekly, distributes 317,209 copies each week in London on Friday mornings.

ShortList debuted in London and five other cities last September, and each Thursday it hands out close to 500,000 copies. ABC figures for second-half 2007, its first audit period, show that ShortList averaged 462,731 copies a week. It aims to reach 500,000.

Shortlist and Sport are now the two largest circulation men's magazines in the country.

"We are seeing a real shift in the way consumers expect to engage with the men's magazine market," says Soutar. "Before there was only one route--to choose from the newsstand. Now we are seeing a small amount of cannibalization but also a lot of new readers in the market."

Earlier this month, Dare, a women's monthly, went free, upping its distribution to 750,000. It's handed out at London tube and train stations.

While it's too early to judge Dare's impact on the women's category, that cannot be said about ShortList and Sport. They appear to be doing some damage to the paid-for weeklies.

Circulation at Bauer Consumer Media's Zoo was down 12.5 percent, to 179,006 from July to December 2007 compared to the same period the year before, while IPC Media's Nuts was down 8.5 percent, to 270,053.

ShortList and Sport solve a problem for marketers by offering the sort of mass distribution that was difficult with paid titles. As Alan Brydon, head of press communications at Media Planning Group, notes, most existing men's titles were either too small or their content too salacious for a lot of advertisers.

While Brydon worries that a big chunk of ShortList's circulation may be going to those outside its target demographic--the title is handed out at stations to men who look to be of the right age--he says it still amounts to a big magazine in the men's market at the moment, making it worth using.

For his part, Soutar says the readership study they commissioned showed that 86 percent of readers are men and 82 percent fall into the affluent bands they are targeting.

Both titles say they think their concepts could work in other countries.

Monday, February 25, 2008

What Are You Worth in a Free Economy?


What Are You Worth in a Free Economy?
Chris Anderson Explains How 'Freeconomics' Will Change the Media World
By Nat Ives

Chris Anderson's book "The Long Tail" described the rising potential in niche media -- enabled by plummeting digital-storage costs -- and predicted a declining reliance on blockbuster media. In his first (as yet untitled) book since then, Mr. Anderson, the editor in chief of Wired magazine, plans to crystallize the implications of doing business when the cost of products, services and storage is falling rapidly toward zero.
Wired's new issue is free .. sort of. You still have to pay for the mag.

"'Free' shifts the economy from a focus on only that which can be quantified in dollars and cents to a more realistic accounting of all the things we truly value today," he writes in a forthcoming Wired cover story previewing the topic.
That's not to say Wired's growing print circulation is about to become free for readers, or that Wired didn't happily pocket every new penny of revenue when ad pages edged up 5.6% last year, according to its estimates.

It does suggest, however, that media companies and their advertising clients might rethink their strategies amid growing competition from the sector called "free." In an interview ahead of that cover story and Hyperion's planned book release early next year, Mr. Anderson told Ad Age what's coming now. We edited lightly for space, which still has a cost attached to it for Ad Age.

Advertising Age: Give us the broad strokes on "freeconomics." What's free, for whom and why?

Chris Anderson: When you think about it, there really are three kinds of free. There's the free we've known forever, which is the King Gillette razor-and-blade model, which is a form of cross-subsidy. A spin-off of that model is the media model, where the product is free because it's subsidized by the advertiser. That's called a three-party market -- the publisher, the advertiser and the consumer who gets everything for free.

The second kind of free is this weird kind of the free that's never existed before, simply because cost goes to nothing. Moore's Law said processing would get cheaper every year, but there are corollaries for bandwidth and storage. As the price gets closer and closer to zero, you can eventually just treat it as free.

Hotmail started with a tiny amount of storage for free and then you had to pay for the rest. By 2000 to 2002, you were getting more. Then Gmail said, "We're going to give away one gigabyte for free," and revolutionized the market. Yahoo said, "We'll give them infinite storage. We'll use that to reinforce people's connection with Yahoo and make the money somewhere else, maybe banner ads on Yahoo News, maybe just the information you get from people's user behavior that allows you to charge more for ads."

The third model of free is the gift economy. This is what used to be called freaky, Berkeley, hippy-commune stuff and now is the basis for Wikipedia, the blogosphere, Craigslist. There is a real economy out there that is motivated by nonmonentary consideration such as reputation, attention, expression -- all the social incentives that are turning out to be incredibly effective in getting people to do things for free. Before we didn't have a platform on which they could work.

Ad Age: If everything is getting closer to free, why did the cover price on all my celebrity-gossip magazines just go up?


Mr. Anderson: Magazines are in the essentially free business. At Wired, we charge $10 a year for a subscription when the actual cost to us is more than 10 times that much. So why do we charge anything? We charge a nominal fee simply as a psychological fee that shows that you want it -- which allows us to charge advertisers more. A single penny does it. We charge $10 because we don't want to devalue the product, because that would be sending the wrong message. But from our perspective it's essentially free.

Ad Age: Which media companies or marketers win with free, and which lose?

Mr. Anderson: Obviously you don't want to compete with free. If your economic model doesn't let you get to free but your competitor's does, you're fighting a very powerful proposition. If you are selling software and some other company decides to make that software a free service, Microsoft Office is going to be more and more competing with online word processors. That's a wake-up call for Microsoft.

Music labels are the best example of an industry threatened by free. They're in the selling-discs business, the selling-songs business. Obviously the newspapers are dealing with Craigslist. Newspapers charge for classifieds; Craiglist runs them for free. We know how that story ends.

Advertising is a very interesting question. Right now the agencies are competing with cheap. Google can serve very small advertisers who can't pay for big agencies. There's going to be more and more advertising forms that are free to somebody. Advertising isn't the victim of the free economy; it's the engine of the free economy.

One of the biggest issues is it's not all about advertising. Advertising pays for a lot and will pay for more, but there are many other models such as premium, cross-subsidies that are not based on ads.

Ad Age: You discuss the effects of abundance in your article. What happens when we get to play with bandwidth and storage that's free or nearly so?


Mr. Anderson: The best example of this today is YouTube. We focus on the viral hits and phenomenons and the most popular videos. As a Long Tail guy, what's really interesting about YouTube is the extent to which we waste the bandwidth and storage for passing around videos that are of interest to, like, three of us. It's YouTube, not Viral Tube or Lonelygirl15 Tube. It's not about quality; it's about relevance and focus. It's about being incredibly targeted on narrow interests.

Ad Age: So how does a "freeconomic" media model affect or interact with the Long Tail?

Mr. Anderson: The Long Tail is all about infinite choice. If you can give people infinite choice, you can discover the latent demand for products of niche appeal. Infinite free shelf space was essentially the enabling factor. It was simply by being able to be indiscriminately, profligately wasteful that we are able to discover the demand for niche content.

Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired magazine

What we're discovering about the world of the narrow, of the specific, of the niche is that's where people's engagement is the highest. That's where they care about stuff. We have relatively superficial engagement with mass products and relatively deep engagement with niche products. As you go down the tail of popularity, people will pay more to reach narrow audiences than they will to reach broad audiences. You can sell things for big money; you can charge more for advertising.


The world we live in -- a mass-market, commodity, cost-per-thousand market -- is very interesting to compare with the hyper-local. There's a site on Seattle-geek parenting -- you would say that's pretty narrow. We asked what their CPMs are. They said: 'We don't calculate that; we have local merchants who will pay us a few hundred dollars.' If you work it out in CPMs, they're paying $100 per thousand.


A site on Seattle-geek parenting is only possible because the cost of production is zero and most of the labor is donated.


Ad Age: Does free empower consumers, whose attention and respect are becoming the media companies' chief asset, or dis-empower them by eliminating the vote-with-your-wallets influence of circulation revenue, subscriber fees and so on?

Mr. Anderson: I'd like to think that getting more for less is empowering. As we shift from the currency being money to attention and reputation, in a sense, the field becomes a relatively level one. We all have attention and respect we can offer. That's a far more democratic access to the marketplace. We all have attention that has some value. As more and more becomes free, we're able to deploy that wherever for whatever. Basically everything is available to everybody -- not necessarily at all tiers and all features, but the walls to entry to products and services are falling faster than ever before.

Ad Age: What's going on at The Wall Street Journal online, which Rupert Murdoch had strongly hinted would go free once he took over but now is slated to retain a walled garden at its core with possibly even higher prices?

Mr. Anderson: Murdoch has to be culturally sensitive to the company that he bought and deftly change it. Ripping out the pay side overnight would have probably been too traumatic. I'm not sure we've seen the end of that story.

It reminds us that the original Stewart Brand quote is "Information wants to be free." The actual quote also says some information wants to be expensive. What he meant was that commodity information wants to be free and noncommodity information wants to be expensive. I could give away my book and sell you speeches, which are targeted. A band does exactly the same thing: commoditize the album and then monetize the performance. What Murdoch is exploring is the difference between a commodity and a noncommodity.

Ad Age: What's your take on micropayments? Edward Wasserman recently asked in the Miami Herald whether journalism could live without ads, imagining instead "a vast menu of news and commentary offered to you ad-free for pennies per item, the charges micro-billed, added up and presented like a utility bill at month's end."


Mr. Anderson: At this point, my opinion is that micropayments have always failed and will always fail. They violate the fundamental law of free. Free is psychologically powerful. Charging one penny ruins the psychology. Asking people to just think for one second, "Is this worth it?" or "How much is it worth?''is often too much.

Ad Age: Will your book be free?

Mr. Anderson: Obviously we're going to walk the talk. The issue is going to be free. Send us your snail-mail address, and we'll send you an issue free

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Time Inc. to Make More Cuts This Year


Time Inc. to Make More Cuts This Year
By Seth Sutel, AP Business Writer
Magazine Publisher Time Inc. Will Make More Cuts This Year, Time Warner Discloses in Filing
NEW YORK (AP) -- Time Warner Inc. said in its annual regulatory filing Friday that it expects to cut more jobs in its magazine publishing division in the first quarter, resulting in $10 million to $20 million in expenses.
Time Inc. spokeswoman Dawn Bridges said that the job cuts affected fewer than 100 people, and that most of them had already occurred in various parts of the company. Time Inc. has a global work force of more than 10,000.

Time Warner, whose Time Inc. division includes the titles People, Time, Sports Illustrated and Fortune, said the division incurred $67 million in restructuring costs last year, partly related to the closure of Life magazine.

Time Warner also owns Warner Bros., Time Warner Cable and cable channels including HBO and CNN.

Belt-tightening efforts continued last year across other parts of the sprawling company, resulting in $262 million in restructuring costs as 4,400 employees were terminated. That was down slightly from 2006, when the company spent $295 million as it eliminated 5,600 jobs.

Investors are looking to Jeff Bewkes, who took over as CEO at the beginning of this year, to further streamline Time Warner, which many on Wall Street believe has too cumbersome a structure.

Bewkes said earlier this month that AOL will separate its rapidly declining Internet access business from its online advertising operations, which could prime AOL to be either sold or combined with another online company. Microsoft Corp. had expressed interest in AOL two years ago but has since decided to go after Yahoo Inc.

Google Inc. owns 5 percent of AOL and has the right to trigger a public offering of its stake beginning this July, although Time Warner could opt to buy back Google's stake instead.

Bewkes also said Time Warner would consider whether to keep its 84 percent stake in Time Warner Cable Inc., its publicly traded cable TV subsidiary.

Time Warner, the world's largest media company by revenues, also disclosed in its filing that it paid $125 million in cash for a previously announced purchase of an online advertising company called Buy.at.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Advertisers Will Have to Cut Costs


As Giant Retailers Reel, Marketers Gird for Worst
Advertisers Will Have to Cut Costs to Keep Pace With Changing Consumer Priorities, but Can They Afford to Slash Ad Spend?
By Ad Age Staff
http://adage.com/article?article_id=124972

Even the most optimistic had to stop and take a deep breath last week.

First came the retail industry's January sales, and the gain -- a meager 0.5% year over year -- marked the slenderest growth since "The Brady Bunch" ran in prime time. In announcing its numbers for the month, Wal-Mart made the almost apocalyptic pronouncement that consumers were hoarding their gift cards -- "more often for food and consumables than discretionary purchases." All of that was capped off by a Federal Reserve report that consumer credit-card borrowing was down sharply, along with reports that the credit is more often being used to fund the bare necessities.

So just how sobering is this news for marketers of just about anything beyond food, gasoline and home-heating oil -- and the agencies and media that subsist on their advertising? Ad Age looks at the implications for some of the key marketing categories.

Automotive
More loan defaults, more trading down and deferred purchases might be on the way for the already beleaguered auto industry. Morgan Keegan & Co. analyst Peter Hastings believes that in 2008, 15.7 million automotive units will be sold. If that happens, it would mark the industry's second year of declines; 2007 sales slid by 2.5% to 16.1million units, according to Automotive News.
If consumers need to buy a new car, they will step down in price and size, said Mr. Hastings.

Toyota Motor Sales USA's Bob Carter, group VP-general manager of Toyota Division, admitted that the auto industry will undergo "a lot of volatility in the first four or five months of the year." But, like the majority of other auto executives, he projected a stronger second half. Sophia Koropeckyj, auto analyst at Moodys Economy.com, said automaker finance arms have seen loan-default rates rise since the last downturn in 2001 and she predicted they would be more conservative in lending practices this year.

Package goods
Unilever CFO James Lawrence was perhaps the first industry executive to acknowledge a slowing economy may be having an impact on package-goods. "In the second half of the year, we've seen slightly weaker demand in personal care in the United States," he said on a Feb. 7 earnings call. "There has been some softness in [food-service] channels, but in contrast, we have seen quite strong demand for food products which are used in the home, such as meal kits and side dishes."

Household and personal-care industry sales grew an anemic 0.5% in the four weeks ended Jan. 27, according to Information Resources Inc. data reported by Deutsche Bank. That was better than the decline of 0.9% in December, but still nowhere near the sales increases of 4% in the first quarter of 2007.

As the economy slows, U.S. package-goods players will have to rely on cutting costs for the vast majority of their earnings growth in 2008-2010, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Ali Dibadj said in a research note last week, though he doesn't expect the knife to hit marketing spending. "Every company in our coverage," he said, "speaks passionately about its focus and ability to cut costs to offset increasing commodities, inflation and marketing spend."

"A lot of people are using gift cards to buy food," said Burt Flickinger, principal at Strategic Resource Group, but "they may be trading up rather than using them to buy pasta and peanut butter sandwiches for dinner tonight. They might buy five or six steaks to treat the family."

Consumer electronics
A move by Americans to buy only necessities doesn't worry the Consumer Electronics Association. "There's certainly a discussion about whether tech today should be considered discretionary vs. necessary," said the trade group's economist, Shawn DuBravac. "Consumers continue to allocate away from other categories for technology." He said it's more likely that consumers will buy cheaper diapers and groceries than cut off a mobile phone or deprive their kids of a computer.


Forecasts for 2008 -- from CEA and other CE researchers such as iSuppli and in-Stat -- bear that out, with predictions of overall electronics growth, albeit slower than last year. Computer analysis from researchers IDC and Gartner predicts similar softer growth in that sector.

"Last year, when oil prices were going through the roof, we saw that people said, 'Since we're not traveling, let's spend some of that money on buying a flat-panel TV,'" said iSuppli analyst Riddih Patel.

But not everyone is buying that argument. "I've found the greatest correlation in PC shipment levels is overall economic indicators of GDP and consumer confidence," said analyst Roger Kay of Endpoint Technologies Associates, and formerly of IDC. "There is some shifting in buying where people who were going to buy a new PC now content themselves with an MP3 player. ... It's the delay scenario that's most troubling. People still want it, but they decide to put it off, wait to see how things go."

Fast food
Two words: value menus. In the next six months, they're likely to become even more important to the nation's biggest chains. "I think you're going to see more options for the dollar," said Darren Tristano, exec VP of Technomic. He added that if consumers are paying with a credit card for their burger fix, it isn't necessarily bad for the industry. "Your check average goes up with credit-card purchases."

Gift-card purchases were up 16% at Starbucks during the first quarter ended December 2007. Reloads were also up 12% during the same period. Spokeswoman Tricia Moriarty said some customers use its gift cards to keep spending under control. "The reload feature can be an effective way to help people ... enjoy their daily latte while maintaining their budget."

Retail
"Marketers are doing the one thing that they should not be doing right now," said Zain Raj, global practice leader-retail brands at Euro RSCG. "They are out there trying to promote and discount their way to growth. When you have a consumer-confidence issue, it's not about spending less money, it's about spending any money. Marketers need to say 'Here's why you need these things.'"

"You've got to play offense. Now is the time to be aggressive and go out and get market share," said Mike Boylson, exec VP-chief marketing officer, J.C. Penney. The retailer remains committed to the biggest launch in its history later this month, an exclusive brand created in partnership with Polo Ralph Lauren called American Living that will be supported with a splashy campaign debuting during the Academy Awards.

Others are trying to do more with less. ""People are going to have less disposable income, so that's going to change the way we do advertising," said Jose Docabo, senior advertising manager for Home Depot. "We're also going to have to get more creative with less budget."

"Retailers need to take part of their budget and block and take part of it and experiment," said Ric West, exec VP-marketing promotion and production at Sears Holdings.

Telecommunications
Bad economy or no, telecommunications marketers can't afford to trim back $5 billion in spending with cable companies breathing down their collective necks. "We could see more aggressive advertising by cable companies trying to drive customers to their all-in-one plans," said Ross Rubin, directorindustry analysis at NPD Group. He added that consumers may switch plans to take advantage of promotional offers.

It's also possible consumers will drop optional services that tend to run up phone bills, such as call waiting or caller ID, and some may be pushed to consider lower-price options to long distance, such as phone service provided over internet connections.

On the wireless side, a downturn could fuel acceleration in the growth of prepaid-wireless services, primarily for those who can't meet credit requirements for post-paid plans, said Roger Entner, senior VP-communications sector, IAG Research. Yankee Group estimated the number of pre-paid wireless customers will grow from 41.8 million last year to 61.7 million in 2011. Among the phone companies that would benefit from the shift would be TracFone, Boost Mobile, and AT&T pre-paid products such as the Go Phone.

Monday, February 11, 2008

The Coming Ad Revolution


The Coming Ad Revolution
By ESTHER DYSON
Wall Street Journal Page A18
While the big news in the online world focuses on Google, Yahoo and Microsoft, a more profound revolution is taking place on the online social networks: The discussion about privacy is changing as users take control over their own online data. While they spread their Web presence, these users are not looking for privacy, but for recognition as individuals -- whether by friends or vendors. This will eventually change the whole world of advertising.

The current online-advertising model will become less effective, even as it gets increasingly sophisticated. New players are emerging to devalue the spaces that the ad giants are currently fighting over. Companies you've never heard of called NebuAd, Project Rialto, Phorm, Frontporch and Adzilla are pitching tools to Internet service providers that will enable them to track users and show them relevant ads. This approach (called behavioral targeting and already in service by ad networks that track users through so-called tracking cookies) undercuts traditional online publishers, who employ content to lure users and to sell adjacent ads. Now, the ISPs can sell advertisers direct access to the same users.

Take user number 12345, who was searching for cars yesterday, and show him a Porsche ad. It doesn't matter if he's on Yahoo or MySpace today -- he's the same number as yesterday. As an advertiser, would you prefer to reach someone reading a car review featured on Yahoo or someone who visited two car-dealer sites yesterday? His identity is still private: The ISP and behavioral-targeting networks don't know 12345's name and don't care. They just know what they think he wants.

This market will get more competitive, and users will be barraged by ads to which they will pay less and less attention. Call that public space, a world of billboards and cacophony. Even though the ads will be more "relevant" than ever, users will increasingly tune them out.

Now consider the new world of social networks. Facebook, unwittingly or on purpose, has been teaching people to manage their own data about themselves. Facebook's launch of the Beacon service -- which informs Facebook of members' activities (i.e., purchases) on other sites -- was a PR fiasco. But it still familiarized millions of users with the notion that they can control information about themselves online -- and determine to whom it is visible.

What might seem like a horribly complex and tedious task to their elders -- categorizing "friends," managing news feeds, handling intersecting communities of contacts -- feels natural to the Facebook users of today. They want more granularity of control, not less.

Each user determines who will get into his own garden, whether friends or vendors. Look at Dopplr (where I plan to become an investor), a site for travelers. I list my trips, and see how they intersect with my friends' itineraries. "Oh, we'll both be in London April 4? Let's get together!" Or, "Juan and Alice will be in town next Tuesday. Let's hold a dinner!" You can imagine or visit equivalent approaches for books (a hypothetical Amazon 2.0, new and more personalized), clothes (Glam.com and Stardoll.com), and even money management.

So what's the business model? I'll "friend" British Airways, which will say, "We see you're going to Moscow next month. Why not fly through London and we'll give you 10,000 extra miles?" I'm no longer in a bucket of frequent travelers, my privacy protected. I'm an individual with specific travel plans, which I intentionally make visible to preferred vendors. British Airways, of course, will pay Dopplr a handsome sponsorship fee to be eligible to be my "friend" (just as a Nike rep might pay to sponsor a basketball game and be part of the community). Someday NetJets may show up, offering to ferry me and my friends to a conference we'll be attending together.

I'm far more likely to respond to BA or NetJets within a trusted site, and for a specific offer, than I am to heed their ad while reading a newspaper article on the troubles in Russia. (As for Orbitz, my old standby: After five years, it still doesn't acknowledge my preferred airlines.)

The new model creates a more trusted environment for reaching high-value, frequent purchasers, whether of airline tickets, electronics, clothes or other items. Where does that leave the less-frequent purchasers? Probably looking to their friends rather than to advertising for advice. I'm an expert on travel; my friends may look to me for hotel choices. When I'm in the mood to buy a book or a new computer, I'll check out what my friends on Facebook are doing.

This does not mean that traditional online advertising will go away, just that it will become less effective. Value is being created in users' own walled gardens, which they will cultivate for themselves in real estate owned by the social networks. The new value creators are companies -- like Facebook and Dopplr -- that know how to build and support online communities.

Ms. Dyson is an investor in companies including 23andMe, Eventful.com, Meetup Inc., WPP Group and Zedo

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Sweating Bullets in Magazineland


Sweating Bullets in Magazineland
Unfortunately for independent, midsize companies, the new year is turning ugly early
by Jon Fine
It's barely February as I write this, but already 2008 is making brows sweat in Magazineland. Paper prices are skyrocketing, advertising is sluggish, and recessionary fears loom. Wal-Mart (WMT) booted hundreds of magazines out of its stores, which won't help newsstand sales. Nor will magazine wholesalers' ongoing campaign to reduce the volume of copies they distribute, so that they can increase the percentage of copies they actually sell. "Everything that's going up is not supposed to be going up, and everything that's going down is not supposed to be going down," cracks a mordant senior executive. Plus, oh yeah, that Internet thing. Virtually all publishers are racing to invent or buy digital strategies after previously neglecting that part of the business.

This year's stresses are likely to hit the independent, midsize companies of the sector first. These guys are not huge enough to spread challenges across a business notching north of a billion in revenues, nor can they hide within a parent company's multiple companies, as Hearst Magazines or Time Warner's (TWX) Time Inc. can. But they rely on titles big enough to be exposed to macro advertising trends, to which small, niche companies are relatively immune. Rodale and American Media, which post annual revenues around $625 million and $475 million, respectively, are very different companies in very different situations. But they're both still likely to feel the changes in this year's barometric pressures earlier than their bigger brethren.

LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR
American Media is heavily dependent on supermarket tabloids like the National Enquirer and Star. Rodale bet early on what we now call "wellness," in a move that proved fortuitous, and has hit big with the magazines Men's Health and Prevention, which it founded in 1950; it's also had the fortune to publish The South Beach Diet book. Rodale is a family-owned company, run by President and CEO Steven Murphy. American Media, backed by Thomas H. Lee and Evercore Partners (EVR), has been run since 1999 by magazine veteran David Pecker. American Media's financial results are solid on the surface, but it's been rocked by earnings restatements. It has also, quite simply, not delivered for its investors, and underperformed many of Pecker's promises of revenue and profit levels, even while its fiscal year, which ends March 31, looks notably better than the previous one. Rodale's profit was less than $25 million in 2007, according to two executives who viewed financial data, a low figure for a company whose overall ad pages last year surged around 15%. They are thus two companies without much apparent margin for additional spending at a time when competitive vicissitudes require just that.

Murphy disputes this, saying '08 will be a year in which newish, in-the-red magazines Women's Health and Best Life will turn toward profitability. "I would be more worried if our investments were not working," he says. That three high-level executives have departed since December-one remains a part-time adviser-has raised concerns about cost cuts. But Murphy denies the moves were motivated by such concerns, and a spokeswoman says new hires are imminent. (Pecker's spokesman declined an interview request.)

American Media and Rodale both sought buyers in 2007, although Rodale truncated the process abruptly, say executives who were involved. A long-discussed deal between American Media and Source Interlink (SORC), a Ron Burkle concern that owns a major distribution arm and a set of enthusiast magazines, appears dormant. Pecker's five-year contract, which expires in April, will be extended a year, says a spokesman, a vote of confidence that, given industry chatter, may surprise observers. (Two senior executives employed elsewhere report knowledge of conversations in which American Media's owners discussed replacing Pecker around a year ago.)
These observers may search for other clues from these companies that the outlook for magazines is souring faster in '08. Look for a quick, quiet round of layoffs. Look for small-bore magazine or asset sales. Look for sudden ad dips at cornerstones such as American Media's Shape or Rodale's Men's Health. Look, in sum, for 2008 to decide whether the midsize, privately held players can still thrive as standalones in a stagnant or shrinking world.

For Jon Fine's blog on media and advertising, go to www.businessweek.com/innovate/FineOnMedia
Fine is BusinessWeek's MediaCentric columnist and Fine On Media blogger .

Friday, February 08, 2008

Things aren't so bad at the newsstand


Things aren't so bad at the newsstand
For all the shakeout talk, celeb titles are holding up
By Diego Vasquez
The Audit Bureau of Circulations will release numbers for the final six months of 2007 on Monday, and already there's word that circulation for celebrity magazines continues to slow. After years of boom, and the addition of several titles to the category, these magazines are now seeing their numbers either slow or actually fall. Part of that is no doubt due to an increase in cover prices for two of the newer magazines, In Touch and Life & Style, which announced yesterday that they are cutting their rate base. But media people have also begun wondering whether a shakeout is on the horizon, as other categories such as lads, shelter and teen magazines have seen recently. Another issue getting buzz among print buyers as the ABC numbers loom is Wal-Mart's recent trimming of its magazine list, unloading a number of prominent titles from its shelves. The retailer is one of the country's biggest magazine sellers, though the effects of that decision won't be seen until the next measuring period. John Harrington, editor of The New Single Copy, which tracks newsstand sales, talks to Media Life about celebrity titles, Wal-Mart and why things don't look as bad as they might first appear.

Circulation numbers are due out from ABC on Monday, and there are rumors that some celebrity titles, like Life & Style, are going to take a hit. Are we finally seeing the saturation of this genre?

Well, now don't forget that In Touch and Life & Style raised their cover prices by 50 percent, and there's no question that that's going to cause a hit. It's a significant increase. They used to promote their low price, but now that's missing.

My understanding is that In Touch seems to have been hit less and is recovering, and in fact one of their recent issues is one of the best it's had at the newsstand.

I wouldn't ever take it so far as to say we're finally seeing saturation, we may need more evidence to make that statement. Us Weekly has some good numbers, as does OK!. There's a little softness, but nothing outrageous when you consider their positions.

Do you expect a shakeout in the celebrity category?

I don't think there's enough evidence to say the category is ready for a shakeout. It's still the leading category and generates the most sales at the newsstand.

OK! has seen some circulation growth over the last year, though the publication has reportedly lost more than $80 million. Do you think their policy of paying celebrities for their stories will ultimately prove to be a smart one, or is the magazine still in trouble?

They've had newsstand growth the last two periods, despite the fact that they've also raised prices by 50 percent. My understanding is they took a hit at the beginning, but they did some promotion and expanded their coverage, and there is newsstand growth. So that indicates they're starting to find an audience.

Regarding the policy of paying celebrities, everybody's been paying for photos, or something, at some point. How it works into their overall economics I can't tell you. But as far as newsstand goes, their news is good news.


A lot has been made of Wal-Mart's recent decision to cut some titles from its newsstand. Will this have much effect on the magazine industry, or is it a matter of perception being worse than reality?

Well, I think it's less than meets the eye.

They lowered their list by a lot, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

First, the remaining titles represent about 98 percent of their sales. So most of the titles that they took off were ones that were deadwood on their list. They either weren't selling or had low distribution. And some magazines had actually been discontinued prior to that time.

So that brings the list down to between 1,100 and 1,200 titles, and that's probably in the same range that larger supermarket chains were already at. So, like I said, it's less than meets the eye.

The other part of that is Wal-Mart, on a broader basis than just magazines, has been on a highly publicized effort that's a part of the whole green movement.

It's certainly an issue for them; three or four months ago they issued a statement to the magazine industry that said they wanted to increase sales efficiency to 50 percent and still increase overall sales by 5 percent. So, that whole reduction of the list falls into that same movement. What they call it in quotes is their "sustainability initiative," and it applies to everything in the store.

At this point there's not a reason to think this will have a negative impact on magazine sales.

What categories have seen the biggest circulation changes, in single-copy sales, over the last few years? What does this tell us about these categories?

To tell the truth, I'm not sure there's been any major shifts.

There's been growth in the women's' categories and some falloff in the men's category, especially if you're talking about the laddies books, but on the other hand I think the other end of the men's business has been pretty solid, so I don't know that it's a notable shift.

Some of the women's service magazines have done well in the last year or two, though a few of the years leading up to that were soft. But that's probably shifted to the more style magazines, like Oprah or Martha Stewart Living.

Other than the continued strength of the celebrity category, there hasn't been any significant overall shifts.

With the number of checkout pockets decreasing, what has been the competitive effect on magazines?

Again, I'm not sure there's a significant falloff in checkout pockets.

Some people in the business may actually say there's too much in checkout, as in there're too many choices. Now, there are some things going on where other products are getting aggressive about checkout space. But I'm not sure that's really taken hold yet.

If you look at the numbers on most of the magazines that are considered checkout titles, it's a mix, but I don't think their overall sales have moved significantly over the last four, five or six measuring periods.

Everyone's concerned about it, but I'm not sure there's an overall trend that can be identified.

Diego Vasquez is a staff writer for Media Life.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

It's a printer Jim, but not as we know it


It's a printer Jim, but not as we know it
So far, the digital age has been all about information. This is fine if you like that sort of thing - chatting, blogging and texting, etc - but what if you're someone who likes to actually create things, i.e. solid objects? Until recently, you could design them on a computer using 3D software, but they would remain virtual until you built them in a workshop.

Now there's an alternative: desktop machines that allow you to press 'print' and out comes your object in its full 3D glory. It's early days yet for these 3D printers: you can print a cup or a working hinge, for example, but not a working pen. However, it's clear that we're now witnessing a moment in history as significant as when photography changed from black and white to colour. Well, actually, it will probably be much bigger than that.

This 3D technology is currently used by engineers in the aerospace and automobile industries. Formula 1 car designers, for instance, want to constantly modify and replace parts. This technology allows them to design and test components virtually and then press print when they're happy with their designs. These printers are also used by medics to print implants that are digitally tailor-made for patients. The technology is even being used in the arts. For example, some jewellery is now designed on computers to suit the size and tastes of the customer and is then printed off.

The extraordinary thing about this technology is that it turns all the values of mass production on their head. Would we get used to going round to other people's homes for dinner and finding exactly the same knives and forks on the table as we have? But what would happen if you could digitally craft your own cutlery and print it off? Time will tell.

There are now many different types of 3D printing technology and a huge range of materials that can be machine sintered, laser cut, welded, UV cured or just glued. Very importantly, these machines are affordable, so designers and craft cooperatives can now compete in terms of price and precision with big business. Thus this technology doesn't threaten local craftspeople. On the contrary, it supports them at the expense of factories and mass production.

Printing in 3D is revolutionary in another sense, too, because as soon as we can make a machine that can make itself, the means of production will be available to everyone. There are already several groups working on this replicator idea, such as Adrian Bowyer's RepRap project at the University of Bath (www.reprap.org). His vision is to transform the manufacturing capacity of developing countries by making a 3D printer that can not only print useful objects, such as pumps, but also has the ability to print itself.

Some people say that such revolutionary technology will cause a complete upheaval in the economic and manufacturing landscape of the world. What ever happens, I hope that, for once, we engineers and scientists, who are so often the architects of change, engage not just in the economic impact of 3D printing, but also in the massive social, cultural and political changes it will undoubtedly bring to life on this planet.

Dr. Mark Miodownik, Materials Scientist, Kings College London

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

E-Mail Newsletters Seek to Replace Magazines


Advertisers are finding receptive audiences with the increasingly popular services.
By Alana Semuels
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-list5feb05,1,7359535.story?ctrack=2&cset=true
Evan Friedman isn't lazy, just efficient. Why should he slog through newspapers, entertainment guides, restaurant fliers and concert promotions if someone will do it for him?

Friedman, a 24-year-old from Los Angeles, subscribes to Thrilllist.com, which bills itself as a lifestyle guide for men. It keeps him in the know with daily e-mails that advise him, basically, on how to be cool. He has dined at restaurants it suggested, attended events it plugged and purchased gadgets it recommended, including a cover for his iPhone.

"It's a trusted break in my barrage of e-mail," Friedman said. "It's kind of like an e-mail from a friend."

Thrillist is one of dozens of electronic mailing list services. Some have been around for years but new ones have been popping up recently, godsends not only for Friedman and people like him but also for advertisers.

The services, most supported by ads, reach audiences most magazines only dream of. The median household income of Thrillist subscribers, for instance, is $107,000, dwarfing Sports Illustrated's median of $63,605 and Maxim's of $65,710.

"Magazines like Stuff and Cargo have been going under, and we've been taking their place in the market," said Ben Lerer, a co-founder of Thrillist, which recently launched a Las Vegas edition. Lerer said its L.A. edition was projected to reach 45,000 recipients by next December, which would be an 86% jump from a year earlier.

The idea behind e-mail list services is simple. They bring order to the chaotic mass of information on the Web and elsewhere, seize on relevant information -- or things that the services' employees decide is relevant -- and present it via e-mails to subscribers.

"We appeal to people who like to be on top of things but don't have the time to do it," said Gary Foodim, general manager of Very Short List.

Every service claims a niche. Veryshortlist.com says it "points to excellent new (and sometimes vintage) entertainment and media that haven't been hyped to within an inch of their lives." Dailycandy.com touts itself as "the ultimate insider's guide to what's hot, new and undiscovered." Flavorpill.com says it provides "filtered bits of knowledge that help you better navigate an ever-expanding sea of cultural options."
The field is getting crowded, bursting with lists targeted at specific groups of people. Among them: UrbanDaddy ("an exclusive, daily e-mail magazine devoted to keeping you in the know"), Julib.com ("what's new and hot in the world of restaurants, boutiques and beauty") and Pocketchange.com ("detailing the most expensive goods and services found in New York and Los Angeles").

Most e-mails carry with them at least one ad. Recipients don't seem to mind the marketing, said Kris Hallerman, a senior analyst at eMarketer. "It's not seen as intrusive because people have control." They can always unsubscribe.

Advertisers like to hop onto e-mails that people invite into their mailboxes, especially now that spam filters have gotten better at blocking ad-only messages.

"People that are fans of the list have quite a personal relationship with it; that makes it a good vehicle for the right advertising," said Michael Jackson, president of programming at IAC/InterActiveCorp., which funds Very Short List.
After a Thrillist e-mail mentioned Astor & Black, a tailor that makes inexpensive custom suits, $100,000 worth of suits were purchased in a matter of weeks, the company said. DailyCandy said an e-mail about a movie screening prompted 8,000 RSVPs.

The competition for subscribers is heated. Flavorpill, a weekly list founded in 2000, recently made its content accessible on mobile phones and updates its website frequently, notifying subscribers when there's something new. "We've been looking over our shoulders for seven years, wondering why no one else was doing this," co-founder Mark Mangan said.

DailyCandy is making its archive, which contains eight years of content, more accessible on its website and is trying to bring its subscribers together in the physical world for philanthropic and other events. It recently started sending out daily texts to the mobile phones of people who prefer to receive information that way, and created a mobile website for people to access on their hand-held devices.

"We're always thinking about how to provide new and undiscovered things in different ways going forward," said Pete Sheinbaum, chief executive of DailyCandy Inc. "The fortunate thing for us is that we are requested by users to enter their in-boxes, which is a private space these days."

Monday, February 04, 2008

Magazine Observers See Challenging Year


Memo Pad: Ouch, It Hurts . . . ... Holy Smokes . . .
OUCH, IT HURTS: Magazine publishers are already feeling the pinch from fears of a recession - and many observers expect things to get worse before they get better.
George Janson, managing partner, director of print for Mediaedge:cia, predicts it will be a challenging year, with perhaps minor growth in packaged goods. "If there is any overall growth, it will run between 0 and 2 percent," he said.

Deutsche Bank also maintains a cautious view on the prospects of consumer magazines this year. It expects revenue performance to continue to be constrained since structural pressures remain in key sectors, including automotive and men's lifestyle. According to a report from the bank last month, online revenues are growing quickly but aren't enough to offset erosion elsewhere in the business. "We believe the recent Emap consumer magazines sale for 9.5x EBITDA, compared with an average 11.3x EBITDA M&A multiple for the industry, is a clear indicator of the pressure on consumer magazine asset values at present," the report said.

Retail advertising is turning into a sore spot for many magazines - so what do fashion titles do when one of their key ad categories is down? Focus even more on luxury, it appears.

Valerie Salembier, senior vice president/publisher at Harper's Bazaar, said she just returned from Paris and the only concern she heard was how retail was going in the U.S. She added that, so far, the magazine has experienced no losses from luxury advertisers. Donna Lagani, senior vice president and publishing director at Cosmopolitan, agreed retail continues to be a tough category for the magazine, but added her ad base is diverse enough to offset a downturn in spending.

"If you read the papers, you see that retail is awfully vulnerable because of the comparable-store sales," said Lagani. Still, Kohl's, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart are all advertising in Cosmo. "We don't have the reliance on the retail sector as other magazines with whom we compete. We've expanded in technology and packaged goods. There's a lot of money in that stuff." And the Hearst title is also picking up business that would normally go to TV, at least temporarily, thanks to the writers' strike: "One is a beauty client, two are packaged goods," Lagani said.
Talk of a possible recession isn't keeping Carlos Lamadrid, vice president and publisher of Woman's Day, up at night. He argued the magazine's core business is relatively resistant to economic woes. "Our big categories are pharmaceutical, beauty and packaged goods and food. Those are all recession-proof. With pharmaceuticals, you're sick, you need your meds, you take them. People will still eat no matter what. We're not talking gourmet, we're talking Kraft and Quaker. And beauty is a luxury that every woman will continue to indulge in. You may not buy a $600 pair of Gucci shoes, but a new lipstick still perks you up." Ad Age last week cited a Deutsche Bank report that found that cosmetics sales decreased 2.2 percent to $790.4 million during the fourth quarter of 2007, with lip treatments dropping 10.9 percent.

Lamadrid did concede that retail is a trickier prospect. "We carry some apparel, but it's been difficult to build that business, because their business is so soft. At the same time, if the consumer who was going more upmarket starts to come back to masstige, that presents an opportunity. Our reader is a Wal-Mart, J.C. Penney, Kohl's, Target shopper, and shop up toward Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Nordstrom."

GQ publisher Pete Hunsinger said retail sales are an issue and he sees some advertisers shifting their allocations a little in response. "People are holding off - if they did an eight-page insert last year, maybe they do a four-pager this year," he said. "If they did a spread, maybe they're doing a page."

He added GQ has actually added luxury auto accounts so far this year. The men's title was up a little in January, up 10 percent in February and slightly down in March.
Of course, some publishers expressed reason for optimism. Details publisher Chris Mitchell said after a slow start, his magazine's endemic businesses of fashion and retail "are so far holding or growing." He added the magazine had its best March and April ever this year. And Elle publisher Carol Smith said she's closed four record issues so far, calling upon the old saying that "things are never as good or as bad as they look." She added, "Despite the bleak headlines, luxury marketers - for the most part - haven't given up on consumers."

It remains to be seen how long that will be the case. One media buyer who works with luxury clients, particularly in Europe, emphasized global economic shifts over a U.S.-centric view. European brands, he said, were spooked by the devastating losses of the fraud at Société Général, and consumer confidence both domestically and internationally has been rattled.

The media buyer said advertisers' decision-making would likely be on the short term, with fewer long-term commitments. "We have people coming back from meetings and saying, 'We need a contingency plan. We need to hold back resources.'" - Amy Wicks, Irin Carmon and S.D.S.

HOLY SMOKES: Ellen von Unwerth has rankled her share of Catholic Bostonians by photographing what looks like a handful of nuns sketching a naked man for Equinox Fitness clubs' new campaign. After the ad appeared in Boston magazine earlier this week, angry callers and e-mailers started barraging the Back Bay club with complaints. Then the local media jumped on the story, further stoking the fires about the Fallon-made ads.

Terrence Donilon, a spokesman for the Boston Archdiocese, has called for an apology and wants the ads yanked. He told one news agency, "It's offensive to religious women who dedicate their lives for the good works of the church." But Equinox isn't headed for the confessional, and still plans to run the ad in Esquire and Vanity Fair. The company's spokeswoman, Judy Taylor, said, "The ads capture the energy and artistry of the well-conditioned body in a thought-provoking fashion, blending fantasy and impact." - Rosemary Feitelberg

Magazine Observers See Challenging Year

Memo Pad: Ouch, It Hurts . . . ... Holy Smokes . . .
OUCH, IT HURTS: Magazine publishers are already feeling the pinch from fears of a recession - and many observers expect things to get worse before they get better.
George Janson, managing partner, director of print for Mediaedge:cia, predicts it will be a challenging year, with perhaps minor growth in packaged goods. "If there is any overall growth, it will run between 0 and 2 percent," he said.

Deutsche Bank also maintains a cautious view on the prospects of consumer magazines this year. It expects revenue performance to continue to be constrained since structural pressures remain in key sectors, including automotive and men's lifestyle. According to a report from the bank last month, online revenues are growing quickly but aren't enough to offset erosion elsewhere in the business. "We believe the recent Emap consumer magazines sale for 9.5x EBITDA, compared with an average 11.3x EBITDA M&A multiple for the industry, is a clear indicator of the pressure on consumer magazine asset values at present," the report said.

Retail advertising is turning into a sore spot for many magazines - so what do fashion titles do when one of their key ad categories is down? Focus even more on luxury, it appears.

Valerie Salembier, senior vice president/publisher at Harper's Bazaar, said she just returned from Paris and the only concern she heard was how retail was going in the U.S. She added that, so far, the magazine has experienced no losses from luxury advertisers. Donna Lagani, senior vice president and publishing director at Cosmopolitan, agreed retail continues to be a tough category for the magazine, but added her ad base is diverse enough to offset a downturn in spending.

"If you read the papers, you see that retail is awfully vulnerable because of the comparable-store sales," said Lagani. Still, Kohl's, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart are all advertising in Cosmo. "We don't have the reliance on the retail sector as other magazines with whom we compete. We've expanded in technology and packaged goods. There's a lot of money in that stuff." And the Hearst title is also picking up business that would normally go to TV, at least temporarily, thanks to the writers' strike: "One is a beauty client, two are packaged goods," Lagani said.
Talk of a possible recession isn't keeping Carlos Lamadrid, vice president and publisher of Woman's Day, up at night. He argued the magazine's core business is relatively resistant to economic woes. "Our big categories are pharmaceutical, beauty and packaged goods and food. Those are all recession-proof. With pharmaceuticals, you're sick, you need your meds, you take them. People will still eat no matter what. We're not talking gourmet, we're talking Kraft and Quaker. And beauty is a luxury that every woman will continue to indulge in. You may not buy a $600 pair of Gucci shoes, but a new lipstick still perks you up." Ad Age last week cited a Deutsche Bank report that found that cosmetics sales decreased 2.2 percent to $790.4 million during the fourth quarter of 2007, with lip treatments dropping 10.9 percent.

Lamadrid did concede that retail is a trickier prospect. "We carry some apparel, but it's been difficult to build that business, because their business is so soft. At the same time, if the consumer who was going more upmarket starts to come back to masstige, that presents an opportunity. Our reader is a Wal-Mart, J.C. Penney, Kohl's, Target shopper, and shop up toward Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Nordstrom."

GQ publisher Pete Hunsinger said retail sales are an issue and he sees some advertisers shifting their allocations a little in response. "People are holding off - if they did an eight-page insert last year, maybe they do a four-pager this year," he said. "If they did a spread, maybe they're doing a page."

He added GQ has actually added luxury auto accounts so far this year. The men's title was up a little in January, up 10 percent in February and slightly down in March.
Of course, some publishers expressed reason for optimism. Details publisher Chris Mitchell said after a slow start, his magazine's endemic businesses of fashion and retail "are so far holding or growing." He added the magazine had its best March and April ever this year. And Elle publisher Carol Smith said she's closed four record issues so far, calling upon the old saying that "things are never as good or as bad as they look." She added, "Despite the bleak headlines, luxury marketers - for the most part - haven't given up on consumers."

It remains to be seen how long that will be the case. One media buyer who works with luxury clients, particularly in Europe, emphasized global economic shifts over a U.S.-centric view. European brands, he said, were spooked by the devastating losses of the fraud at Société Général, and consumer confidence both domestically and internationally has been rattled.

The media buyer said advertisers' decision-making would likely be on the short term, with fewer long-term commitments. "We have people coming back from meetings and saying, 'We need a contingency plan. We need to hold back resources.'" - Amy Wicks, Irin Carmon and S.D.S.

HOLY SMOKES: Ellen von Unwerth has rankled her share of Catholic Bostonians by photographing what looks like a handful of nuns sketching a naked man for Equinox Fitness clubs' new campaign. After the ad appeared in Boston magazine earlier this week, angry callers and e-mailers started barraging the Back Bay club with complaints. Then the local media jumped on the story, further stoking the fires about the Fallon-made ads.

Terrence Donilon, a spokesman for the Boston Archdiocese, has called for an apology and wants the ads yanked. He told one news agency, "It's offensive to religious women who dedicate their lives for the good works of the church." But Equinox isn't headed for the confessional, and still plans to run the ad in Esquire and Vanity Fair. The company's spokeswoman, Judy Taylor, said, "The ads capture the energy and artistry of the well-conditioned body in a thought-provoking fashion, blending fantasy and impact." - Rosemary Feitelberg

Magazine" Inkjet Technology to Dominate Drupa


BoSacks Speaks Out" The following paragraph caught my eye and I thought it was worth passing on:

"It's the first time we have seen continuous inkjet in the category of glossy media and catalogues," Kodak chief technical officer Bill Lloyd told reporters.

This seems to me to the logical next step in printing magazines. It is an enormous opportunity to personalize edit to individual readers. It gives any publisher the ability to have multiple niches within a single long press run.

"Science, my lad, is made up of mistakes, but they are mistakes which it is useful to make, because they lead little by little to the truth."
- Jules Verne


"Magazine" Inkjet Technology to Dominate Drupa
BY Barney Cox, PrintWeek,
http://www.printweek.com/drupa/news/778768/Inkjet-technology-dominate-Drupa-Kodak-Xerox-launches/

Drupa 2008 is set to live up to its billing as 'the inkjet Drupa' after both Kodak and Xerox revealed plans to show new inkjet technologies. Both firms have pledged to reveal new high-speed inkjet technology at the Düsseldorf event, although the two have widely diverging views on the potential applications for the technology. Kodak has revealed plans to commercialise its Stream technology, un­­veiled at last week's pre-Drupa media week, within two years and claims it offers "offset class" performance that will transform the industry.
"It's the first time we have seen continuous inkjet in the category of glossy media and catalogues," Kodak chief technical officer Bill Lloyd told reporters.

Kodak predicts that a trillion pages per year, which is the equivalent of 1% of the world's printed pages, will be produced using Stream technology by 2015.

At Drupa, Stream will be shown as a one-up, 150m per minute concept press and the firm plans to begin selling products based on the technology by 2010.

Xerox's approach to inkjet development is more cautious. The firm has suggested inkjet will be a niche technology, despite having registered more than 1,200 patents for inkjet technology developments.
"We believe inkjet has its place and is suitable for very high volumes," said Xerox production systems group vice president of marketing Valerie Blauvelt. "People have high-quality applications inkjet is not suitable for. These include direct mail and transactional."

Blauvelt described Xerox as "not a single technology company" and added the firm was going to continue to develop products based on xerography and solid ink.

The firm used last week's conference to launch two new machines, the 490/980 colour continuous feed printers and the 650/1300 continuous feed printers.